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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."